In a typical year with wetter soils the ground insulates the wheat. When the soil lacks moisture the insulation value goes down which leaves the wheat more susceptible to winter kill. Quick temperature changes can also be a factor in the amount of damage. If there is a very mild fall and then a cold snap hits, the wheat doesn't have time to build hardiness to handle the cold temperatures.
As my father-in-law and I were looking at some of our fields he said that sometimes as a farmer all you can do is just close your eyes and hope for the best.
-Sightless and Hopeful Farmer Ryan
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